10 Things We'd Want You to Know Before Buying This Fall

If you're thinking about buying a home in Austin this fall, the headlines probably aren't helping. One week rates are falling, the next they're stuck. Prices are crashing, or they're climbing. It's a lot of noise.

So we went to the data. Our Fall 2026 Buying Guide pulls together the latest forecasts and market numbers, and a few clear themes came through. Here are the ten things we'd want any buyer to know before they start touring.

1. Rates aren't headed to 5%

A lot of buyers are holding out for a big rate drop. In one survey, 42% of people said they expect rates to fall below 5% this year. The forecasters who study this every day don't agree. Fannie Mae, the MBA, and Wells Fargo all project the 30-year fixed holding in the mid-6% range through at least mid-2027.

Could inflation cool and surprise us? Sure. But building your plan around a rate that may never come is a strategy that tends to cost people the right house.

2. Prices are growing, just slowly

Waiting for prices to fall is the other common hope. Nationally, the average 2026 forecast calls for prices to rise about 2.1%, and FHFA data shows prices up roughly 2.13% year over year. That's a healthy, sustainable pace, not a boom. It also means waiting rarely guarantees a better price later.

3. Fall is a buyer's season

Home sales peaked in June, right on schedule, and fall typically brings a slowdown. The people moving now tend to be driven by real life changes: a new job, a growing family, a need to be closer to loved ones. Fewer buyers in the market means the ones who are here have more leverage. Expect inventory to build and price cuts to become more common as we head into the holidays.

4. Texas inventory is back, and then some

This is the biggest bright spot for buyers right now. According to Realtor.com, Texas inventory is up 29% compared to July 2019, putting us among just 16 states (plus D.C.) back above pre-pandemic levels. More homes for sale means more choices, less competition, and more room to negotiate. After the frenzy of 2021 and 2022, that breathing room is a welcome change.

5. Sellers are saying yes to concessions

The "take it or leave it" era is fading. Redfin found that 46% of recent sellers gave the buyer a concession, the highest share on record for this time of year. Roughly 1 in 6 cut their price and offered a concession on top of it.

A concession isn't always a price cut, either. It might be help with closing costs, a repair credit, or a rate buydown. Knowing which one to ask for, and when, is where strategy really matters.

6. Builders negotiate more than you'd think

If new construction is on your list, there's good news there too. NAHB data shows 63% of builders are offering incentives and about 35% are cutting prices outright. It's been more than 17 straight months of over 60% of builders sweetening the deal. Rate buydowns, upgraded finishes, and price adjustments are all fair game.

7. The house that's sitting might be your best deal

Most buyers scroll right past listings that have been on the market for 60 or 90 days, assuming something must be wrong. Often, nothing is. The price started too high, the photos didn't do it justice, or it simply got buried in a busy market.

Median days on market has climbed from 34 in 2022 to 57 this year, and about 1 in 5 listings now carries a price cut. The longer a home sits, the more open its seller tends to become. A thorough inspection will tell you if there's a real issue, and that becomes negotiating leverage, not a reason to walk away.

8. A half point matters more than you'd think

Rather than trying to time the market, focus on what a rate change actually does to your monthly payment. At luxury price points, even small moves add up quickly. Here's the 30-year fixed principal and interest on a $2,000,000 loan:

That's why a seller-paid rate buydown can be worth more than a modest price reduction. Rates shown are illustrative; jumbo loan pricing varies by lender, so talk with your mortgage advisor for current terms.

9. Pre-approval comes first, not later

Touring homes is the fun part, we get it. But getting pre-approved before you start looking is what lets you move confidently when the right house appears. And once you've applied, keep your finances steady: no new credit, no large purchases, no switching bank accounts, and no unexplained cash deposits without checking with your lender first.

10. Shop by monthly payment, not loan amount

Qualifying for a loan and comfortably living with its payment are two very different things. With property taxes and insurance rising, especially here in Texas, build your budget around the full monthly number you're happy with, then work backward to a price range. It's the simplest way to make sure your new home feels like a win long after closing.

The bottom line

The market is almost impossible to time, and the buyers we see do best aren't trying to. They find a home they love, that fits their life, and that they can comfortably afford, then they negotiate smart. This fall offers more inventory, more motivated sellers, and more room to ask for what you want than buyers have seen in years.

Want the full Fall 2026 Buying Guide, or a conversation about what these numbers mean for your search in Austin? Reach out anytime. We'd love to help you make your move with confidence.